Ecologist and simulation modeller

FOR-CAST Research & Analytics


Dr. Chubaty is an ecologist and simulation modeller developing landscape-level models of insect dispersal and forest disturbance.

His research broadly explores the impacts of host selection and dispersal at multiple spatial scales as well as scaling up from individual-based behavioural models to population-, community-, and even landscape-level models of insect outbreak and disturbance.


  • insect outbreaks
  • forest ecology
  • cumulative effects
  • simulation modelling


  • PhD in Biological Sciences, 2014

    Simon Fraser University

  • BSc in Biological Sciences, 2005

    University of Calgary



Habitat Connectivity

We have reimplemented and updated the grainscape R package for landscape connectivity, habitat, and protected area network analyses.

SpaDES: Spatial Discrete Event Simulation

A collection of R packages for implementing a variety of event-based models, with a focus on spatially explicit models.

Boreal forest ecosystem forecasts

We are integrating various simulation models dealing with forest vegetation dynamics, fire, insect disturbance, and wildlife populations, to inform decision making in these management areas.

LandWeb: historic range of variation in western boreal forests

LandWeb is the first large scale, data-driven approach to simulating historic natural ranges of variation (H/NRV). This model integrates two well-used models for forest stand succession and fire simulation, and is implemented using the SpaDES platform.

Simulating mountain pine beetle eastward spread

The continued eastward spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopk.; MPB) now threatens the boreal forests of eastern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and beyond. Predicting the outbreak and spread dynamics of this insect in jack pine, and to evaluate control measures to mitigate a potentially devastating loss of forest habitat and timber supply requires not only a complex understanding of the various inputs to this system and their interactions (e.g., MPB population dynamics, climate impacts, landscape features) but also the technical capacity to run large-scale spatial simulation models, and to update them quickly as new data are acquired and new models are developed. …

Recent Publications

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Assessing the pathways of climate change effects in SpaDES: an application with boreal landbirds in Northwestern Canada

Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which …

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Cumulative effects research in SpaDES

Natural resource management decisions benefit from cumulative effects research that efficiently integrates scientific knowledge across …

Data to decisions: a multispecies approach case study for Northwest Territories

Predicting caribou resource selection and demography under landscape and climate change

Facing the tree-slayer: forecasting Mountain Pine Beetle spatial spread in SpaDES



  • fpCompare: Reliable comparison of floating point numbers. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • grainscape: Efficient modelling of landscape connectivity, habitat, and protected area networks. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • LandR: Landscape Ecosystem Modelling in R. GitHub; Website
  • LandWebUtils: Additional utilities for LandWeb analyses. GitHub; Website
  • map: Defines a meta class of geographical objects, the ‘map’ class, and associated tools. GitHub; Website
  • NetLogoR: A Port of ‘NetLogo’ Functions and Language to R. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • pemisc: Miscellaneous utilities developed by the Predictive Ecology Lab Group. GitHub; Website
  • quickPlot: Develop and run spatially explicit discrete event simulation models. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • reproducible: Develop and run spatially explicit discrete event simulation models. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • SpaDES: Develop and run spatially explicit discrete event simulation models. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • SpaDES.addins: Tools and RStudio addins for ‘SpaDES’ and ‘SpaDES’ module development. CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • SpaDES.core: Core functionality for Spatial Discrete Event Simulation (SpaDES). CRAN; GitHub; Website
  • SpaDES.experiment: Simulation experiments within the SpaDES ecosystem. GitHub; Website
  • SpaDES.shiny: Utilities for building shiny-based apps for SpaDES simulations. GitHub; Website
  • Additional modelling tools for Spatial Discrete Event Simulation (SpaDES) module development. CRAN; GitHub; Website


  • miniCRAN: Create a mini version of CRAN containing only selected packages. CRAN; GitHub