Boreal forest ecosystem forecasts using integrated dynamic simulation models

Working with others in the McIntire lab at the Pacific Forestry Centre, we are working on integrating various simulation models dealing with forest vegetaiton dynamics, fire, insect disturbance, and wildlife populations, to inform decision making in these management areas.

Simulating mountain pine beetle eastward spread

The continued eastward spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopk.; MPB) now threatens the boreal forests of eastern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and beyond. Predicting the outbreak and spread dynamics of this insect in jack pine, and to evaluate control measures to mitigate a potentially devastating loss of forest habitat and timber supply requires not only a complex understanding of the various inputs to this system and their interactions (e.g., MPB population dynamics, climate impacts, landscape features) but also the technical capacity to run large-scale spatial simulation models, and to update them quickly as new data are acquired and new models are developed. …

SpaDES: Spatial Discrete Event Simulation

A collection of R packages for implementing a variety of event-based models, with a focus on spatially explicit models. These include raster-based, event-based, and agent-based models.